Is There an Optimal Entry Time for Carbon Capture and Storage? A Case Study for Australia's National Electricity Market

This paper examines the economic competitiveness of implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for deployment on the Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) against conventional base load electricity generation. By examining the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) for sent out generation as a suitable hurdle for judging the future prospects of different technology types, we examine the likely mix of generation assets that could be invested in. After examining the LCOE it is shown that CCS enabled technologies will not be competitive in Australia until 2025, which is well beyond the first emissions reduction target for 2020.Levelised Cost of Energy; Electricity Generation; Emissions Reduction; Carbon Capture and Storage

The Computation of Perfect and Proper Equilibrium for Finite Games via Simulated Annealing

This paper exploits an analogy between the “trembles” that underlie the functioning of simulated annealing and the player “trembles” that underlie the Nash refinements known as perfect and proper equilibrium. This paper shows that this relationship can be used to provide a method for computing perfect and proper equilibria of n-player strategic games. This paper also shows, by example, that simulated annealing can be used to locate a perfect equilibrium in an extensive form game.Game Theory

Modeling the deployment of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles and their effects on the Australian National Electricity Market.

The development of hybrid and fully electric vehicles could deliver significant reductions of emissions from the Australian transportation sector by shifting its major energy source from internal combustion to electricity. This shift towards the the use of electricity shifts the point source emissions to one which has a lower emissions intensity. Changes in load behaviour as a result of the consumer uptake of these vehicles will have significant consequences for network and central planners for the future of Australia’s electricity supply industry. This paper investigates the effects on the security of supply of energy during these previously unseen demand patterns, while also examining changes to spot market prices and changes in emissions rates. The simulation results indicate that wholesale prices during the off-peak period will increase slowly over time with controlled charging. While uncontrolled charging increases the incidence of extreme price events and a considerable number of hours with un-served energy within the network. This increase in spot prices may have consequences for regulated retail electricity tariffs. We also discuss the implementation of possible changes to the retail tariff structure to accommodate the charging of these vehicles.Electricity Markets, Hybrid Vehicle, Transportation Economics.

Potential Impacts of Subprime Carbon on Australia’s Impending Carbon Market

This paper examines the potential impacts of subprime carbon credits on the impending Australian carbon market. Subprime carbon could potentially be created in carbon offset markets that lack adequate regulation, as projects face risks that can overstate emissions abatement. Recent research suggests that subprime carbon credits will likely cause significant price instability in carbon markets, with some authors drawing parallels to the US market for mortgage backed securities during the subprime mortgage crisis (Chan, 2009). To assess the impacts of subprime carbon credits on the impending Australian carbon market, carbon price fundamentals are examined using a marginal abatement cost curve for the year 2020. The 2020 Australian marginal abatement cost curve is derived using a bottom-up model of the Australian electricity sector, as well as findings by the (DCC, 2009) and (McKinsey, 2008). Impacts are evaluated under several scenarios, which consider different trading scheme limits on the use of offsets; different proportions of offset credits that are subprime; and different emissions reduction targets. The results suggest that subprime carbon credits will always result in overall emissions reductions to be overstated, while sometimes increasing price volatility in the carbon market, depending on the steepness of the marginal abatement cost curve, the proportion of offset credits that are subprime, and the trading schemes limits on the use of offsets. We conclude that carbon markets could benefit significantly from a carbon offsets regulator, which would ensure the environmental and financial integrity of offset credits.Carbon Offsets, Marginal Abatement Cost, Carbon Market Regulation, Subprime Carbon

Opportunity costs of restoring environmental flows to the Snowy River

The construction of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme in the 1960s resulted in the diversion of 99% of the Snowy River’s natural flow into the Murray and Murrumbidgee river systems. In 2000, the NSW, Victorian and Commonwealth governments agreed to restore between 21 per cent and 28 per cent of the natural flow. In this paper, we examine the implications of the Agreement for the value of water use in the Murray-Darling Basin.Snowy river, water, environmental flows

Market and Economic Modelling of the Intelligent Grid: 1st Interim Report 2009

The overall goal of Project 2 has been to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of distributed energy (DG) on the Australian Electricity System. The research team at the UQ Energy Economics and Management Group (EEMG) has constructed a variety of sophisticated models to analyse the various impacts of significant increases in DG. These models stress that the spatial configuration of the grid really matters - this has tended to be neglected in economic discussions of the costs of DG relative to conventional, centralized power generation. The modelling also makes it clear that efficient storage systems will often be critical in solving transient stability problems on the grid as we move to the greater provision of renewable DG. We show that DG can help to defer of transmission investments in certain conditions. The existing grid structure was constructed with different priorities in mind and we show that its replacement can come at a prohibitive cost unless the capability of the local grid to accommodate DG is assessed very carefully.Distributed Generation. Energy Economics, Electricity Markets, Renewable Energy

Price Spikes in Electricity Markets: A Strategic Perspective

This paper aims to analyze the issue of price spikes in electricity markets through the lens of noncooperative game theory. The case we consider is Australia’s long established National Electricity Market (NEM). Specifically, we adapt von der Fehr and Harbord’s multi-unit auction model to settings that more closely reflect the structure of the NEM, showing that price spikes can be related to a specifiable threshold in demand.Electricity Markets, Spot Price Behaviour, Non-Cooperative Game Theory.

Grandfathering and greenhouse: the role of compensation and adjustment assistance in the introduction of a carbon emissions trading scheme for Australia

The terms ‘grandfather clause’ and ‘grandfathering’ describe elements of a policy program in which existing participants in an activity are protected from the impact of regulations, restrictions or charges applied to new entrants. In this paper, the role of grandfathering in the design of a carbon emissions trading scheme in Australia is assessed. It is argued that adjustment assistance policies such as those adopted in conjunction with previous microeconomic reform programs are preferable to policies based on the free issue of emissions permits.grandfathering, emissions trading, compensation, adjustment assistance